The pattern of the textile industry recession in the future

Since the beginning of this year, the downstream sales of textiles have been sluggish. The year-on-year increase in the ex-factory prices of textiles has shown a downward trend from month to month. The recent yarn prices in the upstream market are also not good. The prices of C32 and TC45 yarns are 26,740 yuan/ton and 22,800 yuan/ton, respectively, At the end of the month, prices fell by 280 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton. The decline in cotton prices and the decrease in textile demand are important factors affecting the monthly decline in the factory prices of textiles.

In terms of textile exports, data show that in October 2011, China exported about 19.65 billion US dollars worth of textiles and clothing, a year-on-year increase of 10.39%, but a decrease of 14.49% compared with the previous period, which has been a three-month decline, confirming the pattern of sluggish demand in the cotton textile industry chain. .

Downstream garment exports have continued to decline, and weak demand may continue for some time to come. China's textile and apparel export situation is not optimistic.

According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global cotton production in 2011/2012 was 26.974 million tons, which was a 65,000 tons reduction from the previous month's forecast; consumption was 24.88 million tons, a reduction of 23,000 tons; import and export volume was 7.91 million. In tons, a reduction of 40,000 tons.

Global cotton ending stocks will reach 11.965 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic cotton production this year is expected to reach 7.48 million tons, an increase of 25%, and industry insiders estimate that it can even increase production by 30%.

In short, due to the impact of uncertainties in the European debt crisis and the influence of the fundamentals and policy aspects of the upstream and downstream industries, Zheng Cotton will continue to oscillate in the narrow range of 20,000 to 20,500 within a short period of time. Transactions will continue to be sluggish and difficult to achieve.

In the future, we must continue to pay attention to the progress of the debt crisis in the euro area and the progress of the acquisition of the State Reserve.

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