In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained steady at 55.2%, showing no change from the previous month. Among various industries, the manufacturing of apparel, footwear, and fur products stood out for maintaining stable new orders and production indices, contributing significantly to the overall PMI performance. According to Cai Jin, vice president of the China Logistics Information Center under the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the stability in the new orders index is particularly noteworthy.
This month's PMI data reflects a generally stable manufacturing sector, with the new orders index remaining consistent. In 20 industries, over 60% of them showed positive trends, led by the textile, clothing, footwear, and fur and feather products sectors. The production index also remained stable, with six key industries, including apparel, footwear, and fur products, reporting strong performance.
The high demand for winter-related goods, such as coats, boots, and down jackets, played a major role in driving up both the new orders and production indices in these sectors. This surge highlights the impact of seasonal demand and economic recovery, especially during the cold season. Retailers near Chongqing Road reported significant sales increases, with one well-known leather brand seeing an eightfold rise in daily sales compared to the previous period. Footwear and down jacket counters also experienced substantial growth, with some stores reporting sales increases of up to seven times.
According to a mall manager near Chongqing Road, sales of winter clothing, including cotton suits, leather garments, and cashmere sweaters, saw a sharp increase in November. This trend is not only due to the seasonal shift from autumn to winter but also reflects a broader economic rebound. Consumers are showing stronger spending power, particularly for warm-weather products.
The PMI index is a crucial indicator for predicting economic trends. Zhang Liqun, an expert from the State Council Development Research Center, noted that the PMI serves as a key measure of economic recovery and can forecast future economic growth. A reading above 50% indicates expansion, while below 50% suggests contraction. With China's PMI stabilizing, it signals potential for sustained economic recovery.
Jin Zhaohuai, vice president of the School of Economics at Northeast Normal University, emphasized that PMI is a leading indicator used by governments, financial institutions, and investors for decision-making. Internationally, the PMI is closely linked to GDP and is used to analyze industrial performance and business cycles.
The PMI is calculated based on five key components: new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), supplier deliveries (15%), and inventory (10%). In November, the sales of down jackets at several shopping malls near Chongqing Road in Changchun surged by up to seven times quarter-over-quarter, while leather goods counters saw nearly an eightfold increase in average daily sales. This hot market trend clearly reflects the influence of seasonal demand and its positive impact on economic indicators. The November PMI data provides valuable insights into how seasonal factors and economic recovery are shaping the current market landscape.
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