Fashion half-monthly talks focus on analyzing the latest hot-spot operating models in the industry, and keeps track of the latest trends in international and Hong Kong stocks, to improve the comparative research of the A-share textile industry, and to conduct the latest research feedback.
This issue: On March 23, the trade war between China and the United States broke out. We believe that the impact on the performance of the textile and apparel sector is limited, and more is the impact on the heart. Textile manufacturing: Due to the poor stability of sewage treatment and power supply in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, domestic fabric production still has advantages, and the increase in tariff rate has limited impact on domestic fabric exports. However, the process of garment processing is simple, and the low-cost tax rate advantage in Southeast Asia is obvious. Domestic garment exports are susceptible to tariff increases. Key manufacturing companies account for no more than 10% of US revenues, and most of them have set up factories in Vietnam, so trade friction has limited impact on performance. Cross-border e-commerce: Model factors lead to limited impact on the industry, and still have long-term competitive advantages. Cross-border trades are affected by trade wars. The highest decline in income is less than 5%, and the high growth attribute remains unchanged.
The latest feedback from A-share key companies: Ge Lisi: The main brand in the same store increased by 15% in January and February, EdHardy sales increased by 17%, and laurel sales increased by 38%. Anzheng Fashion: In January and February, the main brand Kyoko/Yinmo sales increased by 12%-13%, the same store was around 7%; menswear sales increased by 20%+, same store 10%+; Fiona morning sales increased by 50%+ The same store is about 18%; Mosak is flat. Luolai Life: Overall sales increased by 15-20% in January-February, double-digit growth under the line, and online growth of 20%+. Fu Anna: Home textile sales increased by about 25% in January and February. Taiping Bird: In January and February, the overall sales growth rate was close to 30%, among which e-commerce increased by 70%, and the offline growth rate reached double digits. The growth rate of male/female/children's clothing was positive. Cross-border communication: February is the off-season of cross-border e-commerce, the website traffic has decreased in the chain, but it is still normal. Trend review: Shenwan Textile Service Index Shenwan Textile and Apparel Index fell 4.69%, with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is flat. Performance of individual stocks: Among the brands, Baibaolong/Nanji E-commerce/Leader shares gained the most; in the manufacturing category, Shanghai Sanmao/Golden Eagles/Sanmao sent their gains. In the same period, H-share brand Jiangnan Cloth, Baoguo and Li Ning led the gains; manufacturing category Shenzhou International led the gains.
Fundamental data: 50 large-scale retail enterprises in the 18-year period of January-February showed good sales performance, and the export growth rate increased during the same period. Affected by factors such as the delay of the Spring Festival, the cold winter, and the continuation of the industry's leading recovery, the retail sales of 50 garments in January and February increased by 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 8.7pct year-on-year, and also higher than the overall retail sales growth of 5pct. In February 18, the cumulative export value of textiles increased by 34.40% year-on-year, and the cumulative export value of clothing increased by 19.40%.
Investment strategy: Influenced by the Sino-US trade war, the sector followed the market's callback last week, taking into account the continuation of the Q1 fundamental recovery trend, and 18 years of macroeconomic marginal improvement, the brand company channel inventory has been relatively benign, 18 spring and summer The results of the self-ordering of the order fair will increase by about 10%, while the sales rate in the autumn and winter of 17 will reach a historically good level. It is expected that the performance of the 18th autumn and winter trade fair held in the first half of the year is expected to be further strengthened. At the same time, the same store continues to grow and the channel returns to the store cycle. Pulling, it is expected that the annual performance growth will be more secure. Therefore, after the above analysis, the textile and export cross-border e-commerce sector has been relatively limited by the trade war, and the sector has been wrongly killed. The 18-year valuation of mainstream recovery companies has basically fallen back to around 20X, which is in the performance disclosure period and 18 autumn and winter. The results of the order fair will gradually reach the stage, and it is recommended to add the leading company in the process of the plate callback.
Continue to recommend: 1) Underestimate the white horse: Senma (18PE17X) / Haishu (18PE14X); 2) Underestimation of subdivision: Home textile leading Luolai life (18PE20X), Mercury home textile (18PE21X); fashion casual leading Taiping bird (18PE21X), high-end Women's songs (18PE19X) and Anzheng fashion (18PE17X); 3) New model high growth: Leverage Xiaomi's new retail system, high growth, Kairun shares (18PE37X) / cross-border e-commerce leader cross-border (18PE20X) .
Risk warning: terminal demand continues to be sluggish, exchange rate fluctuations, trade wars involve the expansion of the field to garment manufacturing.
Editor in charge: Xu Yuehua
Warm Men'S Pant,Fashion Pant,Fashion Dyed Pant,Garment Dyed Pants
SHAOXING NEWGROUND TEXTILE TRADING CO., LIMITED , https://www.shaoxingnewground.com