Since the beginning of this year, the market is in a pessimistic outlook for the macro economy, and the commodity market has witnessed a relatively significant drop in the first half of the year. However, the stabilization and rebound of macroeconomic data in recent months shows that the real economy is tough and the demand for commodities is relatively strong. Therefore, we see that as long as the supply of commodities is not too bearish commodity, this year's trend is stronger than that of â€. Some varieties have reached new heights, and non-ferrous varieties also show strong growth. The market’s pessimistic expectations of demand have also affected the Zheng cotton market, and when we look back at the trend of cotton in recent years, we will find that the expectation of excessively pessimistic demand leads to the overslide of cotton, and once the demand is released, the price will break out. Style rise. â€â€â€
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â€â€â€For example, in 2014 and 2015, including the first half of 2016, many people's expectation of domestic cotton demand was calculated at more than 6 million tons, and then using such data to carry out production and operation arrangements, resulting in continuous shrinkage of social stocks, and finally The stockpiling of stocks prior to stockpiling last year led to an explosive rise in cotton prices. Returning to this year, although everyone thinks that demand has recovered a lot and expectations for cotton demand have been raised, it is still not enough. In the first half of the year, when people communicated with the market, everyone thought that the demand for cotton this year was around 7.5 million tons, and the maximum of 7.8 million tons was already very good; but from the present situation, it may be more than 8 million tons, even reaching 830 Ten thousand tons.
â€â€In fact, in addition to the Chinese market, the demand in the international market continues to exceed market expectations. We have seen that the USDA's demand adjustments in the last two years are basically based on upward adjustments, and there are very few downgrades. These are supporting the world. The main reason for cotton prices.
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â€â€In the new year, the global acreage has grown significantly. According to the current situation, the annual output increased by 1.92 million tons, of which India increased by 430,000 tons, the United States increased by 400,000 tons, Pakistan increased by 320,000 tons, and China increased by 270,000 tons. Obvious increase in the country of production, even if the abnormal weather in the later period, the probability of a substantial increase in production this year is also very large. From the supply and demand balance sheet, the increase in ending stocks in the international market is difficult to change.
â€â€The above is from the supply of cotton, the negative is very clear, but from the demand side, it gives us an optimistic side. Although the USDA has been increasing global cotton consumption, the extent of its upward adjustment is debatable, especially in the Indian market. From the perspective of India's supply and prices, there should be a large increase in demand, but we have not seen the USDA adjust it reasonably. In 2016-17, India's consumption has also seen a slight downward adjustment. The author believes that the adjustment of the USDA to the Indian market in the later period should be more obvious.
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â€â€Demand in the world market is strong, and it can be seen from the export of US cotton. After a significant increase in US cotton exports in 2016-17, the pre-sale of US cotton in 2017-18 also achieved very good results. In 2016-17, a total of 3.45 million tons was signed, up 2.16 million tons in the same period of last year, an increase of 1.29 million tons; in the 2017-18 year, US cotton pre-sales were cumulatively signed 1.11 million tons, compared with 522,000 tons in the same period of last year. Although the USDA lowered the US cotton export forecast for 2017-18, based on other considerations, the current pre-sales show very good.
â€â€Based on the above situation, the author believes that the USDA underestimates global consumption and will continue to increase in the later period to offset the impact of global production increase. The seemingly huge supply pressure will reduce the impact on the market. Outside of this, China may have to import cotton in 2017-18, which will also significantly reduce the ending stocks in the international market. Therefore, although the market is generally more pessimistic, from the current price point, the international market has consumer support, and there is limited room for decline.
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