The situation in the Middle East is reviving. US President Trump announced on the evening of the 13th that he has ordered the US military to join the United Kingdom and France in "precisely attacking" Syrian military facilities. Afterwards, the Syrian capital heard a huge explosion from time to time, and many places raised smoke. The Russian Embassy in the United States subsequently issued a statement saying that the United States, Britain and France will pay a price for military strikes against Syria. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China opposes the use of force and relevant parties should resolve the issue through dialogue and consultation.
Analysts pointed out that the turbulent situation in Syria or the continuous escalation will have an impact on gold, oil and capital markets. Investing in logic or changing, how can you respond?
gold
Risk aversion rises, New York gold price rebounds
Driven by the recent market hedging demand, gold and other assets are booming. Since the beginning of this week, the gold market has fluctuated around the Syrian issue. In the first half of the week, Trump announced the bombing of Syria, causing the panic to soar. Gold has risen for three consecutive days, with London gold rising nearly 2.92% to $1,365.40 per ounce. Ramp was vague on the Syrian issue, causing the panic to ease, and gold once retreated all the gains.
However, after the United States and the United Kingdom and France joined forces in the early morning of the 14th local time, the most active June gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market rose by $6 from the previous trading day to close at ounces. US$1347.9, an increase of 0.45%.
Analysts say that geopolitical tensions are hard to come by, and gold prices have rebounded. On the 13th, other precious metals, silver futures for May delivery rose 18.5 cents to close at 16.658 US dollars per ounce, or 1.12%; platinum futures for July delivery fell 1.7 US dollars to close at 933.1 US dollars per ounce, a decrease of 0.18%.
oil
Oil pipeline is threatened
Short-term oil prices may rise sharply
As one of the most important commodities in the world, crude oil has always been the title of “king of commoditiesâ€, and its price is generally affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand structure, international situation, market liquidity and investor risk appetite.
Syria is only a small country of crude oil production, but it is vital to the global crude oil market. There are many oil production and transportation facilities in and around Syria, including Iran’s oil pipeline SUMED through the Suez Canal and Europe, and Turkey in the north of Syria. The source of the important oil pipelines, which are responsible for the export of Iraqi and Azerbaijani crude oil, and the port of Ceyhan, Turkey, is the end point of the BTC pipeline and the KC pipeline. These oil production and transportation facilities are likely to be hit at any time during armed conflicts, thereby increasing the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. In addition, the fight against Syria will, to a certain extent, encourage the arrogance of “Islamic extremists†and is likely to help these people move from Syria to Iraq, further threatening the future supply of global oil.
Affected by the escalation of the situation in Syria, as of April 13, oil has hit a new high in 2014. WTI crude oil prices have remained at the highest level since December 3, 2014, recording the largest weekly increase since July last year. As of the closing of international futures on April 13, Beijing time, the price of light crude oil for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.32 US dollars to close at 67.39 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.48%. London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose $0.56 to close at $72.58 a barrel, or 0.78%.
CITIC Securities 600030, clinics shares the view that further deterioration of the situation in Syria is upgrading US-Russian armed confrontation in Syria for many years, short-term may significantly push up the price of oil, expect a direct military confrontation between the US and Russia happened not too long duration on the Syrian issue, the price of oil Return to the trend of supply and demand.
stock market
US stocks rebounded
Europe's three major stock indexes rose across the board
As the situation in Syria deteriorates, market risk appetite decreases and US stocks rebounded. The three major stock indexes of the New York stock market closed down on the 13th. On the same day, investors focused on the latest published earnings of listed companies and tensions in Syria. As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 122.91 points from the previous trading day to close at 24,360.14 points, a decrease of 0.5%. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 7.69 points to close at 2,656.30 points, a decrease of 0.29%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 33.60 points to close at 7106.65 points, a decrease of 0.47%.
The London Stock Market "Financial Times" 100 stock average price index closed at 7246.56 points on the 13th, up 6.22 points or 0.09% from the previous trading day. The three major European stock indexes rose across the board.
In terms of individual stocks, service stocks in the London stock market led the gains, while consumer stocks led the decline. In the other two major European stock indexes, the French Paris stock market CAC40 index closed at 5315.02 points, up 5.80 points over the previous trading day, or 0.11%; Germany's Frankfurt stock market DAX index closed at 12442.40 points, up from the previous trading day. 27.39 points, an increase of 0.22%.
exchange rate
The impact will not be too recent
US dollar index rose slightly
For the global foreign exchange market, Gong Ke, chief investment officer of Chongqing Investment Department of CIC Securities, said that the duration of the Syrian war should be relatively short, and more is the political contest between the major global powers, rather than the military and economic contest. . Therefore, for the global exchange rate market, the impact will not be too great in the short term.
The US dollar index rose on the 13th.
On the same day, the US dollar index against the six major currencies rose slightly by 0.04%, and closed at 89.783 in the foreign exchange market. As of the end of the New York currency market, 1 euro was exchanged at 1.2334 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day of 1.2330 US dollars; 1 pound was converted to 1.4243 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day of 1.4226 US dollars; 1 Australian dollar was exchanged 0.7761 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day $0.7756.
1 US dollar to 107.46 yen, higher than 107.20 yen in the previous trading day; 1 US dollar to 0.9622 Swiss francs, higher than 0.9621 Swiss francs in the previous trading day; 1 US dollar to 1.2614 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day 1.2587 Canadian dollars.
A-share market
The oil sector is cautiously chasing high-defense military forces or tapping potential
The US, UK, and France coalition forces are attacking Syria. Where will the A-share market go? In response, the reporter interviewed Gong Ke, the chief investment officer of Chongqing Investment Department of CIC Securities, to answer questions from investors from various angles.
Gong Ke believes: "This week, the market rallied, and unilaterally fell for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday, and the market showed signs of weakening. In particular, it is necessary to note that the SSE 50 Index has created a half-year amount of land. The amount appeared on the way to the October 27th, and then accelerated to the top; this time the amount appeared in the adjustment market, and the land price after the land amount. Therefore, the Syrian war may have a certain negative impact on the A-share market. In particular, once the oil and gold sectors under favorable stimulus have changed, it may cause small and medium-sized stocks to lose blood, which will increase the selling pressure in the market. But from a medium-term perspective, 3000 points as the golden section of the 2638~3587 rising market It is unlikely that the effective break will be small. Therefore, in terms of the broader market index, it is a more objective and rational judgment to maintain the 3000~3200 interval and then rebound.
Oil sector
Seeing the fundamentals, it is not appropriate to chase after high
The Syrian war will further boost international oil prices. The rise in international oil prices is expected to positively support domestic crude oil futures. The rise in domestic crude oil futures prices is good for the oil sector in the A-share market. However, TSE Futures believes that any geopolitical risk that does not lead to a disruption in supply is not a real risk. Oil prices may rise in the short term, but they are not sustainable. The core driver behind the sustained rise is still the improvement in fundamentals. The reason why geopolitical risks in the current environment have a greater effect on the rise of oil prices is because destocking has been ongoing, and inventory is the best cushion for supply disruptions. It should be noted that the international oil price has soared by 8.78% in the previous week, which is expected for the Syrian war. Therefore, the oil sector should not be blindly chased.
[potential stocks]
Sinopec 600028, diagnostic stock , Taishan Petroleum 000554, diagnostic stock , Longyu fuel 603003, diagnostic stock , Tongyuan Petroleum 300164, diagnostic stock
Gold plate
The upswing market is obvious, the concept stocks may have performance
The risk aversion triggered by the situation in Syria will boost the international gold price further, which will have a positive impact on the domestic gold market, so the gold sector in the A-share market will benefit. Some analysts believe that as the war heats up, the future of gold may rise.
From the perspective of A-shares, in the war, the market has a strong risk aversion. As one of the typical defensive sectors, the gold concept stocks have recently started to make up the market and have a clear trend. Before the international disputes subsided, the sector was short-term. It will continue to be catalyzed by favorable measures and be subject to speculation by funds. Gold concept stocks may have performance next week.
[potential stocks]
Western Gold 601069, diagnosis stock , Chifeng Gold 600988, diagnostic stock , Ronghua Industrial 600311, diagnostic stock , Jingui Yinye 002716, diagnostic stock
Defense military
Signs of capital inflows are obvious, you can continue to tap the potential
The global political and economic situation has a role to play in a whole body, which requires China to accelerate its pace in developing national defense military industry. Therefore, the decision-making level may introduce more policies to develop military industry, and relevant listed companies are worthy of expectation.
The sector has been in a pullback trend since 2015. The sector is dominated by pulsed market speculation. The recent sector has continued to rise, and the signs of capital inflows are obvious. Many of the stocks in the sector can start to go out of the upward trend, while tensions in Syria escalate. It may continue to push the sector up, and potential stocks can continue to be tapped within the sector.
[potential stocks]
Chengfei integrated 002190, diagnostic stock , Tianhai defense 300008, diagnostic stock , Wanan Technology 002590, diagnostic stock , accurate information 300099, diagnostic stock
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