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Black early review
1. Rebar: Wait and see or rallies
Yesterday, the thread was lower and the night was narrow. In terms of spot, Tangshan billet 2800 (+50) cash included in the factory, Shanghai thread 20mm HRB400 Shagang plant raised 3280 (+0), the transaction volume.
The current market focus is still in stock, the stocks increase significantly during the holidays, and the inventory will continue to increase before the downstream real demand starts; the steel mill starts more stable, the profit per ton of steel is better, the overall supply is loose, and the short-term steel price will be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or ralli test.
2. Iron ore: recommended to wait and see
Yesterday, the bottom of the iron ore rebounded strongly, and the night plate fluctuated within a narrow range. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 82.75 (+1.95).
At present, port inventory is at a historically high level, and the amount of port-opening is significantly restored compared with that before the holiday. Steel mills have better profit per ton of steel, but the inventory is higher, and the demand for further replenishment is weaker. We believe that the price of ore in the day may be dominated by shocks, and it is difficult to see the trend.
3. Coal char: demand is again under pressure, wait and see
Recently, China Coal Group announced in its 2017 work arrangement that it will achieve a capacity of 17.2 million tons per year in 17 years. In 2016, China Coal completed 7 mines to reduce capacity and resolved excess capacity of 6.45 million tons.
The night market fluctuated in a narrow range and the positions changed little. Recently, there have been some changes in the spot market. First, environmental protection and limited production have come again. The Central Environmental Protection Department has been in Tianjin. The steel mills have stopped production for one week and directly reduced the coke. Especially in the case of high coke inventory in steel mills, coking profits may be further Compression; Secondly, in the case of many coking enterprises facing losses or large losses, coking coal or limited production due to coking, further decline in construction, resulting in pressure on the demand side. Overall, the recent rebound is still not conducive to the price of double-focus, the current price is still falling. In operation, it is recommended to buy a snail throwing coal arbitrage, and the former light warehouse empty order can continue.
White sugar early review
New York's raw sugar futures fell on Tuesday, in line with the CRB index, and the March contract was extended to May, boosting trading volume. Yesterday's night, Zheng sugar prices have declined, but the decline is not large. Liuzhou: The middlemen's new sugar offer is 6,840 yuan / ton. Nanning middlemen new sugar offer 6910 yuan / ton; Chen sugar offer 6730 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Xinjiang announced the production and sales data for January. In January, the monthly production of sugar was 84,900 tons, an increase of 57,300 tons year-on-year; the sales of sugar was 0.86 million tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons year-on-year. The sales volume in January was very small. As of now, the sales rate in Xinjiang is 30.49%. . Recently, we continue to pay attention to Guangxi production and sales data. From a technical point of view, the daily level, the MACD red column expands, the fast and slow lines continue to slowly rise and cross the zero line, KDJ is also gentle and the golden fork is up, the Bollinger passage is narrow and slender. On the 30-minute line, the MACD green column expanded, and the high and low line of the fast fork was down, but the KDJ low position was close to forming a golden fork. Trading strategy: Zheng sugar is afraid to open lower today, and it is still appropriate to throw high and low in the day.
Early egg review
Egg prices in the main producing areas of the country have risen steadily, with an average price of 2.26 yuan / kg. At present, the price of eggs is sluggish, and the market is eliminated before and after the Spring Festival. However, there are more chickens in the peak of egg production. The drop in the whole country is around 0.5 yuan/kg, and the price has fallen below the two-yuan mark, creating a new low in the past decade. Loss; after the Spring Festival, the market began to circulate, the price was reluctant to sell, and the market gradually circulated after the Spring Festival. In some areas, there was a small amount of stocking after the egg merchants' holiday, but the overall egg price rebounded space was limited, and it was difficult to escape the loss situation in the short term. From the perspective of the futures market, the main contract of the egg 1705 is weak and fluctuates within a narrow range, and the short-selling trend continues. It is recommended that investors continue to hold empty orders and maintain a short-term thinking.
Oil and fat oil early review
1. (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Tuesday, climbing for the fifth day in six trading days, as US soybean export demand is expected to remain strong until more South American soybean supplies are available. The March soybean contract closed up 6-3/4 cents at $10.42-3/4 per bushel. March soymeal futures closed up $3.10 at $335.9 per short ton. March soyoil futures fell 0.14 cents to 34.3 cents per pound. .
2. Malaysian crude palm oil rose for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, and the expectation of tight supply continued to boost the market. April crude palm oil futures rose 0.46% to MYR 3,082 per ton. The volume was 54,884 lots. A Kuala Lumpur-based trader said that the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) announced on Tuesday that the decline in palm oil production was greater than market estimates. "MPOA's latest January production showed a 13% decline, which was greater than the market's forecast of a 9-10% reduction. This could lead to more inventory reductions," she said. The trader said that the fall in crude oil prices inhibited the rise of palm oil. The benchmark Brent crude futures fell 0.22% on Tuesday night to $55.60 a barrel. Another trader said market sentiment has been supported by expectations that production will fall. Traders expect the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) to announce low inventory data at the end of the week. “Before the release of the MPOB report, the market expects a drop of at least 10%.†The trader said that the decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange earlier this month triggered some profit-taking, but the depreciation of the RM helped offset the decline. The weakness of the RM makes palm oil more attractive to traders holding foreign currencies.
3. The grease night rebounded, and more than one waited to return to the 60-day moving average. Bean brown in May was closed at 688, buying beans empty brown above 650. Cardamom is held shortly in May.
Energy and Chemical Review
1. LLDPE: Some domestic PE market prices rose yesterday, linear futures opened higher, and some petrochemicals raised their ex-factory prices. The market was supported and merchants actively followed suit. The terminal needs to be cautious and insist on just purchasing. The cost of upstream crude oil and naphtha was strong, and the price of external disk rose slightly. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories accumulated slightly. After the holiday, there was also demand for replenishment, and the demand for mulch film increased. Supply and demand will maintain a tight balance in the short term, and it is expected to be dominated by shocks in the near term.
2. PP: The domestic PP market price was narrowly arranged yesterday. The petrochemical ex-factory price continued to support the market, and the fall in the futures market had a blow to the industry's mentality. Merchants accompanying shipments to observe the market reaction, the downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The cost of upstream crude oil and naphtha is strong, and the external disk is also stable. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories accumulated slightly. After the holiday, the downstream market of PP also has the demand for replenishment. PP prices are expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to wait and see.
3. PTA: Today's TA futures focus shifts upwards and shocks dominate. The US-Iran relationship has been tense recently, and crude oil prices have been strong and volatile. Japan and South Korea PX device failure, PX spot price is at a high level. Last week, the polyester factory resumed production, and the factory gradually started to enter the replenishment model. Most of the polyester resumption plans after the holiday were advanced. Looking at the PTA futures market in the long-term, there may be upside, but in the short-term or narrow range, the spot market is more synchronized with the futures market. Therefore, in the case of slowing demand before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be dominated by the shock of shifting the focus. Leave more than one single warehouse, and take advantage of the trend.
4. Rubber: Domestically, the data shows that in January 2017, the domestic heavy truck market sold a total of 82,000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 9% from the previous month and a significant increase of 122% from 36,800 units in the same period last year. Internationally, the main producing areas in southern Thailand have been hit by floods, and rubber tapping is inconvenient. It is estimated that rubber production will decrease by 7.6% in 2017. Today, Hujiao pulled up slightly after the opening. The plan for the next week's dumping plan has been slowly digested by the disk. The downstream plant is about to start soon, and the downstream demand for raw materials will increase, which will form a certain support for the futures price. In January this year, domestic heavy truck sales data was bright, and the fundamentals continued to support the trend of Hujiao.
The above comments were provided by Xue Na, Yu Xiaojiao, Sun Minglei, Li Xiaodong, Fan Qingtian, Yang Long, Sun Jinchen, and Bian Shuyang.
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