In the rush of price surges and environmental storms, China's paper and packaging printing industry will end its journey of 2016 in a stormy wave. In the past year, this industry chain has undergone violent turmoil, the fate of countless entrepreneurs and practitioners has been rewritten, and the industry structure has undergone profound changes. In a nutshell, this year's upstream paper industry has unlimited scenery, the middle paperboard factory has made a fortune, and the end of the three-tier carton industry has been raging.
Paper packaging industry
Then, what is the outlook for this industry chain in 2017? What is the trend of packaging paper prices and how will the industrial pattern change?
Multiple unfavorable factors are superimposed, paper packaging orders or cliffs slip
In the past four years, although the export of manufacturing to Southeast Asia has led to a sharp drop in export orders, the express packaging has become a separate force, and the packaging of FMCG has been stable overall, ensuring the stability of the Chinese paper packaging market. However, in 2017, in view of various favorable factors, a number of liquidation crises have been superimposed, and the paper packaging market may experience a cliff-like decline.
Sharp decline in foreign trade orders
The rising price of various raw materials from September 2016 is causing a fatal impact on export industries such as home appliances, furniture, textiles and clothing. Packaging materials, hardware, components, panels, circuit boards, sponges, fabrics and other materials have risen sharply, and foreign trade orders have been negative profits. Since many foreign trade orders generally exceed one month's cycle, but raw materials cost one day, many companies have no choice to pick up. At the same time, Chinese exporters have substantially increased their quotations, resulting in a large number of foreign trade orders being transferred to Southeast Asia. In addition, the three economies that occupy most of China's export markets do not recognize China's market economy status. In 2017, China's export processing industry may see a major decline.
Domestic demand orders are difficult to boost
In the case of a precarious export situation, the paper packaging industry is more dependent on stabilizing domestic demand. However, due to the impact of the real estate bubble, countless middle-class and even ordinary wage earners have been kidnapped by real estate, and they have overdrawn their consumption for the next decade or two. In the past two years, China's fast-moving consumer goods market has risen sharply. In the case of accelerated capital withdrawal, raw material price increase to terminal goods, and rising unemployment, 2017, food, beverage, daily chemical, clothing and other packaging orders have accelerated. The possibilities are getting bigger and bigger.
Real estate bubble into a time bomb
Undoubtedly, real estate has become the biggest obstacle to the bottoming out of the Chinese economy and structural adjustment. Considering the serious oversupply of the real estate industry, the real estate enterprises with the background of Guozihao completed the destocking, the planning and merger of Baosteel WISCO, and the lingering weather in the north, the real estate industry is likely to undergo a fundamental reversal in 2017. As a result, packaging orders for ceramics, sanitary ware, building materials, hardware, home appliances, furniture, lighting and other industries will fall.
E-commerce packaging or ending high growth
In recent years, courier packaging has seen a blowout, almost supporting half of the carton industry. In 2013, China's express delivery industry reached 9.2 billion pieces, 14 billion pieces in 2014, and 20 billion pieces in 2015. It is expected to exceed 30 billion pieces in 2016. 30 billion express deliveries will generate 30 billion bills of transport, 4.3 billion textile bags, 12 billion plastic bags, 4.5 billion paper envelopes, 14.4 billion cartons, 24.5 billion meters of tape, and 4.3 billion internal cushioning packages. . By 2017, the rapid growth of e-commerce packaging may come to an abrupt end, with inflation, the housing bubble and the collapse of the real economy severely constraining people's spending power.
2017 original paper price trend analysis
In 2016, under the overall weak market demand, affected by the paper industry's capacity, G20 production cuts and environmental protection, cattle cards, paperboards, white cards, etc. all set a new high, which is really expected. Not yet. As for the "paper shortage" problem that makes people talk about paper change, Bao Xiaobian does not agree with it. In fact, it is not the supply of raw paper, but the papermaking and paperboard industry restructured sales for several periods, which is an excuse for the transfer of costs to downstream. And means.
In December 2016, although the paper industry in the north and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was suspended for rectification, the signs of paper shortage were not obvious, which proves that the current tight supply of raw paper has ceased to exist. Since many brands have already released their carton orders ahead of inflation expectations, the first three months of 2017 may be the weakest quarter in more than 30 years. However, due to the increasing concentration of paper production capacity, paper mills will be shut down during the Spring Festival, and paper prices may not fall.
In the second half of 2017, in the case of China's accelerated economic deterioration, the RMB exchange rate may once again show large fluctuations. Even in the case of a complete shift in the national real estate policy, inflation will continue to flood. At this time, there may be an extreme situation in which paper prices skyrocketed and orders fell.
2017 paper packaging industry chain pattern changes
Due to various liquidation crises and complex domestic and international economic and political situations currently facing China, all walks of life, including the paper packaging industry chain, are facing major changes in the coming year.
For the Chinese paper industry, it has been in a downturn since 2010, and the golden age has already passed. The 2016 environmental protection trend may completely eliminate most of the small and medium-sized papermaking enterprises, and the industry concentration is more obvious. In 2017, although the market demand may shrink significantly, but with the pricing power in hand, it can be invincible. In addition, some large-scale paper projects under construction may be suspended.
The paperboard industry in the middle reaches is undoubtedly the winner in 2016. The net profit of some manufacturers has soared from 8% to more than 30%, and it has been a great success to shorten the number of customers to one month. However, the cardboard industry in 2017 may not be so lucky. On the one hand, the closure of a large number of three-tier carton factories has led to the transfer of orders to the secondary carton factory. On the other hand, the paperboard industry is likely to face the severe test of the upstream raw paper surge and overcapacity.
The price hike in 2016 has already dealt a fatal blow to the carton industry, and the closure of a large number of three-tier carton factories after the Spring Festival is inevitable. Although the second-tier carton companies have taken orders from some of the three-tier carton factories, these orders are mostly ribs, meaning little. Affected by exports and domestic demand, it is still difficult for secondary plants to pass on costs to customers. The second-tier carton plant in 2017 will be more difficult than 2016.
From the past decades of history, we must not underestimate the viability of Chinese private enterprises. Perhaps through the test of life and death in 2017, the paper packaging industry will usher in a new turn. Because, to meet them, will be the new enthusiasm brought by the new agriculture (the sixth industry). From the recent high-level adjustments of the Central Economic Work Conference, the participation of a large number of powerful capitals in land transfer, and top entrepreneurs rushing into new agriculture, a new era has begun to roar.
In the paper packaging industry, some elite industry elites are adjusting their direction from the traditional packaging of the Red Sea to the new blue ocean of agricultural packaging, cold chain packaging and smart packaging.
Nantong NATASHA Textiles Co.,Ltd. , https://www.ntnatashatextile.com