Silver safe-haven demand rises steadily

After the dissolution of the Bretton Woods System in 1971, silver prices rose from a minimum of $1.29 per ounce to a high of $50 per ounce. After experiencing several rounds of "dancing" in the middle, it was not until 2011 that it stabilized, basically remaining at $30 per ounce. nearby. Looking back at the trend of silver in the past 10 years, apart from the 2008 financial crisis and the small correction in global economic inflation in 2011, the rest of the time is mainly on a steady rise. The overall economic environment in 2012 is not optimistic. The demand for investment hedging will remain strong, and silver prices will rise steadily.

Silver is a scarce resource compared to gold. From 2000 to 2009, the total supply of silver including mined silver, producer hedging, and net investor reductions, together with aggregate demand including industrial applications, jewelry, net investment, etc. Presented a "balance of supply and demand" situation. The basic reserves of silver have been declining year after year since 2005. In 2005, for example, the minerals were 637 million ounces of silver, plus 184 million ounces of recycled materials, totaling 821 million ounces, while the total consumption of silver was 849 million ounces. The net deficit is 28 million ounces. From 1992 to 2006, this deficit has always existed.

In 1940, the world’s gold reserves were 1 billion ounces and silver was 10 billion ounces. Gold increased to 5 billion ounces in 2009, while silver was 1 billion ounces. Seventy years ago, the stock of silver was 10 times that of gold, and today it is 1/5. Compared to gold, silver is greatly scarce.

During the Asian financial turmoil, a large amount of overseas capital flowed into the United States to hedge their risks. As a result, the US dollar rose sharply, gold prices were suppressed, and silver rose by nearly 70%. From 2003 to 2006, the global economy expanded rapidly, commodity prices rose generally, and silver prices were driven by industrial demand, which rose by 185%, while the price of gold rose by only 65% ​​over the same period. During the financial crisis in 2008, the market worried that the global economy was in recession, and the silver with strong industrial attributes had fallen by 44%. In the same period, gold fell only 12% due to the role of the hedging function. The global financial market is almost awkward, and central banks in various countries have injected huge amounts of liquidity into the market. The hedging factor and anti-inflation factors have led to a significant increase in demand for gold and silver. Silver prices hit a record high since the 1980s, reaching US$49.75 per ounce.

Under the current background of the global economy facing inflation expectations, the hedging function will prompt the gold price to continue to rise, while silver has a stronger industrial property and investment attributes and the development prospects are better than gold.

Strong demand for silver in new areas of industry In the past 10 years, consumer demand for silver for industrial production and jewelry processing has increased year by year. It is estimated that the industrial use of silver will be close to 70% of the total demand in 2015. The use of silver in new areas will increase significantly, such as superconductors and superconducting capacitors, batteries and other fields. It is estimated that by 2020, the demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry will reach 186 million ounces (5,800 tons), and further growth in demand for silver in new areas of the industry will inevitably push silver prices upward.

In short, the current strong inflationary expectations and flooding liquidity have caused the turmoil in the global monetary system. The demand for asset hedging and hedging by investors will rise sharply. The contradiction between supply and demand for silver will further intensify, which will drive up the price of silver, while the economy The industrial demand for recovery for silver will increase further. In the coming years, silver prices will have a lot of room for appreciation.

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