Public opinion cotton: Analysis of reasons for strong Zheng period

Editor's note: Since mid-February, domestic prices of Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton have gradually returned from the price of ** and electronic coupling back to the level before the Spring Festival. In the 21000-21200 yuan / ton, but the actual turnover of 20800 yuan / ton is also somewhat difficult, but more importantly, cotton mills demand for high-grade cotton is still very weak, cotton companies in gauze inventory continued to rise, cash flow gradually received With the premise that the cost of raw materials and labor will increase significantly, we must shift more energy to low-grade cotton or real estate cotton.

Since mid-February, the domestic spot price of Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton has gradually returned from the price of ** and electronic coupling back to the level before the Spring Festival. The quotation of three-level public inspection of Xinjiang cotton warehouses is generally at 21000- 21200 yuan / ton, but the actual turnover of 20,800 yuan / ton is also somewhat difficult, but more importantly, cotton mills demand for high-grade cotton is still very weak, cotton companies in gauze stocks continued to rise, cash flow gradually tightened and raw materials The premise of a substantial increase in labor costs has to shift more energy to low-grade cotton or real estate cotton. Although a large number of second, third, and fourth-class lint have entered the state storage warehouse (the number of state-owned cotton will exceed 2.68 million tons by the end of February), plus 1 million tons of state-owned cotton imports, plus an annual 200,000 to 300,000 tons State reserves, nearly 4 million tons of national reserves for 2012/13 cotton supply is both a guarantee and the cotton price to form a "top cover" trend, it can be said that the state is open to storage, propped up the cotton price, but also Relatively flexible policies have pushed into a "dead end". On the one hand, cotton companies continue to lose orders for textile and apparel exports under the support of "four highs" of high cotton prices, high labor, high costs, and high taxes. The effective competitiveness of products has also declined significantly. On the other hand, in addition to some profit earned by the cotton enterprises in the mainland 400-type plant, most of the processing enterprises in Xinjiang have lost or no profit, and due to the centralized transport of Xinjiang's State Reserve Cotton, even though there are opportunities for hedging Xinjiang cotton enterprises did not dare to let go of their hands and feet to avoid risks, because the pressure of lint can be transported to warehouses on the mainland before 5 or 7 months, and the Agricultural Development Bank promptly pushed the goods on a monthly basis. Even if there are opportunities for hedging in the far future, Inability to operate.

So what support the current electronic disk? In my opinion:

First, from the point of view of Xinjiang cotton stock, the price of the surface of the contract and the contract is only the spot price plus bank interest, warehousing and other expenses, so the electronic display shows the sales price of cotton in the interior of Xinjiang. Non-real estate cotton and cotton prices, so the electronic disk is relatively solid;

Second, since the country began to store storage in 2011 and September, the standard grade cotton is 19,800 yuan/ton, then the calculation of financial expenses, storage and transportation for 3-5 months, etc., the exchange price of ** and blending is only the processing of cotton enterprises. The cumulative price of cotton;

Thirdly, about 60% of the high-grade cotton in domestic production in 2011/12 enters the national reserve pool, and the liquidity of resources is greatly weakened. Once the economic data in Europe and the United States continue to recover, the data warming is confirmed, and the domestic market effectively starts cooperation, and the industry expects With the throwing of cotton stocks, the center of gravity will continue to move up;

Fourth, the 2012/13 annual national purchase and storage prices are expected to be high, so that the purchase of funds on the low and cotton prices are low and they appear to be justified. According to rumors, at the national internal meeting on the 28th, the 2012/13 State Reserve cotton standard cotton purchase price of 20400 yuan / ton seems to have reached a consensus, for the electronic disk, Lido Lee is not empty;

Fifth, the relevant state departments tried to control the progress of cotton imports by strictly controlling the import quotas for sliding-quasi-tariff cotton, thereby stabilizing the domestic cotton market and pushing up domestic cotton prices. It is understood that since January, the state has issued 89,400,000 tons of 1% custom-quota quotas and 500,000 tons of sliding-quasi-tariff processing trade quotas (the other 600,000 tons has not been issued, and there are rumors that it is still processing trade), and therefore imports of cotton For enterprises, currently only 1% of the quotas are available, and a large amount of cotton is stored in the bonded area. Once the quota is increased, the impact on the domestic market is self-evident. According to sources, the total amount of import quotas planned for 2012 will be 3 million tons.

Sixth, the expectation that the economic and employment data of the United States and Europe will continue to recover at a low level, the expectation of the acceleration of global economic recovery, and the expectation of China’s monetary policy adjustment are all strengthening. However, China continued to lower its standard, liquidity funds did not enter the real economy, and there was optimism or blindness in the stock market and commodities. This year is also the year of elections in the United States, Europe, and other countries. It does not rule out short-term political and financial “whitewashing”. "The needs of peace.